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April 15, 2009


Analysts: March 2009 DM Estimates

The comics business news and analysis site ICv2.com offers their usual array of lists, estimates and analysis regarding the performance of comic books and graphic novels in the Direct Market of comic and hobby shops, this time for March 2009.

image* Overview
* Analysis
* Top 300 Comic Books
* Top 300 Graphic Novels

John Jackson Miller at The Comics Chronicles is in the process of getting up his his own set of numbers up for March 2009, which you can find on his page devoted to that month.

The big news this month would be IDW assuming the #3 position over Image and Dark Horse, which is something that company had seemingly been aiming towards with a sustained, significant volume of production and a position it seems suited to sustain in the months ahead.

As for the market generally, this seems like an odd month to me. I'm not sure how I feel about the Q1 spin. The ICv2.com folks know more about comics numbers and business trends than I remember about events in my own life, but the analysis that "only" a five percent drop in the first quarter should be seen as encouraging puzzles me. There's a bunch of factors I'm not sure how to process and I can't tell if they did. The spin going into 2009 from most sources is that comics was specifically inured to recession -- so does that seem true or not true? The DM didn't have the obvious gaping wound going into 2009 like some industries such as bookstore sales had with a clearly wounded Borders. Other entertainment media have I believed slowed down previously existing declines or even set Q1 records. Also, I thought the DM had seen singularly awesome and not-soon-to-be repeated performances from Watchmen in trades and the Obama-Spidey comic in single issues. So I'm confused. Can someone out there at least answer the question of how bad it would have been if Watchmen sold at 2008 levels and Obama-Spidey hadn't spiked?

In general, the third month was noteworthy for no general comic book sales moving past the 100,000-unit measure in sales, which could be noteworthy in that the market seems primed to create such books. (It isn't exactly blockbuster season, it should be noted.) An issue of Ultimate Wolverine Vs. Hulk would seem to me a gift in such a market, too, sales that weren't likely to be predicated on a rise or fall from ones in the immediate past, but that's probably not true, either. I can't help but think both March and Q1 are bad news months, not good news months considering X, Y and Z. I don't think it's a dire hit, but I suspect that it may be one explained just as easily as explained away.

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posted 8:15 am PST | Permalink
 

 
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